Experts have predicted:

• 9 hurricanes (average:  6)

• 17 named storms (average: 10)

• 1.  First Tropical Storm of the Season named Andrea.  It is in the news May 9, 2007.  Wind gusts are expected to be up to 55 miles an hour.  Maps have it hitting northern Florida.  In Santo Domingo today, we are experiencing a very rainy day.  It is unusual for it to be cloudy and rainy her all day long.  This storm has been classified as sloppy and disorganized.

• 2.  The second tropical storm was named Barry and was reported in the United States on June 1st.  We had a lot of rain here May 31st.  We learned that the weather cites we were looking at only record the impact on the US.  They acted like it was no big deal there.  Our local report was considerably different: At least nine people have been killed, including two children, in torrential storms which have hit the Dominican Republic. More than 8,000 have been forced to flee their homes. Vast swathes of agricultural land are underwater. Many thousands of people are cut off by the water, waiting and hoping for the emergency services to fly in food and shelter.

• The storms hit the republic at the start of the 2007 Atlantic Storm Season, considered by forecasters to be the first day of June. The capital Santo Domingo was badly affected, and authorities have put four northern provinces on red-alert, warning of the possibility of still more flash-flooding and mud-slides.

• At this same time, a tropical storm was in the Pacific Ocean headed for Guatamala named Barbara.  I really didn't want her to do any memorial damage.  If she did, it wasn't big enough to get into the US news.
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3.  In the North Atlantic, as predicted by NHC yesterday, TD-Three has strengthened into Chantal, and strengthening has continued, tilted but clearly tropical, moving rapidly northeast and being pulled into the strong trough coming off the East Coast, spinning furiously like a biker pedaling downhill, on its way to extratropical transition. Life in the fast lane.

4.  Hurricane Dean

5.   Erin was downgraded to a depression and started drenching the Texas coast as it moved inland.

6.  Felix announced September 2:  The Hurricane Hunters have reported back from the tropical wave about 200 miles east of the southern Lesser Antilles Islands and found a closed circulation and 35 mph winds, good enough to justify naming this system Tropical Depression Six. This storm has the potential to become a hurricane in the Caribbean by Sunday or Monday. Visible satellite loops show a considerable improvement in organization occurred today, with low level spiral bands wrapping around the center of circulation, and upper level outflow now visible on both the north and south sides.  It is passing far enough south of us that we probably won't even notice it--considering how little we noticed Dean.

7.  Gabriel September 8:  Subtropical Storm Gabrielle formed tonight, after a day-long struggle trying to figure out which of two centers to consolidate around. Gabrielle finally decided it would use both centers, and a very large and elongated circulation is the result. This makes Gabrielle a subtropical storm, since the heavy thunderstorm activity is well removed from the center of circulation. Had the storm been able to consolidate around a single center, it would have become a tropical storm, not a subtropical storm.

Wind shear is 10-20 knots over the storm. This shear, combined with the rather large and poorly-organized circulation, will not allow much intensification, and Gabrielle will have a tough time becoming stronger than a 55-mph storm at landfall.  Gabriel is headed to the east coast of the United States near Virginia.

8.  Humberto September 12:  A surprise Hurricane Humberto ripped into Texas near the Louisiana border this morning, bringing winds of 85 mph and torrential rains to the coast. Humberto didn't even exist yesterday morning, and grew from a tropical depression at 11am EDT to a hurricane just 14 hours later. As the hurricane intensified, it grew in size and height, allowing the storm to respond to upper-level winds that changed its course to a north-northeastly path. This allowed Humberto to stay over water parallel to the coast for the crucial hours needed for it to reach hurricane strength. Storms like Humberto give us the sobering reminder that as much as hurricane forecasting has improved in recent years, there is still much we do not understand--particularly in regards to intensity forecasting. If Humberto had had another 12-24 hours over water, it could have been a major hurricane that would have hit without enough time to evacuate those at risk.

9.  September 14  Tropical Storm Ingrid

10.  September 23 Tropical Storm Jerry.  Looks to be moving out to see and not a threat to any one.

11.  Tropical Storm Karen forms
Tropical Storm Karen formed this morning, midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands. This large storm is still disorganized, as seen in the latest satellite loops. Low level spirals bands are slowly organizing, and with wind shear 10 knots or less, Karen should be able to steadily strengthen to a hurricane, as predicted by the SHIPS and GFDL intensity models. The HWRF model keeps Karen just below hurricane strength. Later this week, Karen may encounter a region of hostile wind shear in association with a trough of low pressure that will also turn the storm to the north or northwest. This may slow or reverse Karen's intensification.

It currently appears that Karen will not affect any land areas. It is unusual for a hurricane to turn west and hit the U.S. after going as far north as the official NHC forecast has the storm five days from now. The GFS model has consistently shown that Karen will recurve out to sea east of Bermuda next week. However, the UKMET model is showing a more southerly track just north of the Lesser Antilles islands six days from now. Should Karen follow this track, the storm may miss the trough the GFS is predicting will recurve it. In this case, Karen could be a long-range threat to Bermuda or the U.S. East Coast.  Karen had hurricane force winds before she dissipated.

12.  Hurricane Lorenzo  September 27th by Mexico gulf area

13.  Tropical Storm Melissa September 29th East of the antilles, looks like it is going to go north and miss us and it is expected to weaken.

14.  October 28:  Tropical Storm Noel continues to represent a serious rainfall threat to the Dominican Republic and Haiti due to the storm's very slow motion. Noel has essentially stalled out tonight, and is dumping very heavy rains over the southernmost tip of the Dominican Republic--the Barahona Peninsula. Most of Noel's heaviest rains are still offshore, but these rains will move inland over the island of Hispaniola tonight, and pound the island for at least the next two days. This will result in an extremely dangerous flooding situation in the southern portion of both Haiti and the Dominican Republic, due to the high mountains that will enhance Noel's rains.

update on Oct 29, 2007
The Dominican Republic
The worst of the rains for Puerto Rico are now over, but the flooding situation on Hispaniola today will be extremely serious, particularly in the Dominican Republic. Satellite loops show very vigorous thunderstorms reaching high into the atmosphere roiling over Hispaniola. Early this morning, these thunderstorms dumped about 150 mm (6 inches) of rain in just six hours in a region southwest of the capital of the Dominican Republic, Santo Domingo (Figure 1). Santo Domingo reported a visibility of zero at 2am local time during this heavy rain. Rainfall amount of about 12 inches have fallen over the Dominican Republic's southernmost point, the Barahona Peninsula, according to satellite estimates. The region's only airport weather station stopped transmitting data at 8pm last night.

Another 1-3 inches of rain fell in the past 24 hours over hard-hit Hispaniola, where the death toll is 80. At least 24 people died in Haiti, where deforestation has led to severe flooding problems. In the Dominican Republic, the death toll stands at 56, with many more missing. At least 6,000 buildings were damaged, and 10 bridges washed out. As many as 39 communities remain isolated due to collapsed bridges and washed out roads, and the power is off to over 3 million of the nation's 9.4 million people. The Dominican meteorological service reports that 21.65" (550 mm) of rain fell at Padre Las Casas in the mountains of the central Dominican Republic as of 8am EDT Wednesday. Another 1-2 inches of rain may fall over the island before Noel's rains finally cease. Noel is the deadliest tropical cyclone to affect the Dominican Republic since Hurricane Georges hit Hispaniola in 1998, killing 380 Dominicans and causing over $1 billion in damage to the county. The death toll for Noel makes it the second deadliest storm this hurricane season, behind Hurricane Felix, which killed 133 people in Nicaragua and Honduras.

Noel's death toll
Noel's death toll now stands at 107, with many hard-hit rural areas yet to be heard from. At least 40 people died in Haiti, and in the Dominican Republic, the death toll stands at 66, with 27 missing. According to Reuters, the worst incident appeared to have occurred in the village of Villa Altagracia, outside the Dominican capital Santo Domingo, where two rivers broke their banks and destroyed most of the community of 200 or so houses. Survivors said up to 35 bodies were seen strewn on the river banks there. As many as 52 communities remain isolated due to collapsed bridges and washed out roads, and power is off to over 3 million of the nation's 9.4 million people. The Dominican meteorological service reports that 21.65" (550 mm) of rain fell at Padre Las Casas as of 8am EDT Wednesday. Thankfully, no rain has fallen on the Dominican Republic since dawn today, and Noel's rains may be over. The extreme southwestern tip of Haiti is the only portion of that country to receive more rain from Noel today, and those rains were only about an inch. Noel is the deadliest tropical cyclone to affect the Dominican Republic since Hurricane Georges hit Hispaniola in 1998, killing 380 Dominicans and causing over $1 billion in damage to the county. The death toll for Noel makes it the second deadliest storm this hurricane season, behind Hurricane Felix, which killed 133 people in Nicaragua and Honduras.

This situation report is based on information received from United Nations Resident Coordinators in country and OCHA Regional Office in Panama.

HIGHLIGHTS

- The red alert continues to be maintained in 11 provinces and yellow alert in 14 provinces. Tropical Storm "Noel" claimed the lives of 85 people.

- Priority needs are water, sanitation, health, food security and nutrition. Projects under the Flash Appeal are designed to cover those needs.

SITUATION

1. Hour/Date: 17:00 hr. / 7 November 2007.

2. Weather conditions: The National Office of Meteorology (ONAMET in Spanish) reports that a low pressure system continues over eastern Puerto Rico causes scattered showers in the Dominican Republic.

3. Forecast for the next two days: ONAMET forecasts that over the next 24 to 48 hours rain will return in the country. Precipitation will mostly be concentrated in the Bajo Yuna and northeastern zones, which could lead to new flooding.

4. Affected area: The Committee for Special Operations (COE in Spanish) maintains a red alert in 11 provinces and maintains yellow alert for another 14. In the rest of the Dominican Republic the alert has been discontinued.

5. Impact:

Health, water and sanitation

6. INAPA reports that 155 water systems continue to be damaged, affecting 3.3 million people.

7. The National Hydraulic Resources Institute (INDRHI) increased its damage estimates to 963 million pesos (approximately USD 28.6 million) for the irrigation and training systems in the country.

8. There have been six cases of meningococcica meningitis group B registered in: Santo Domingo Este (3), Santo Domingo Norte (1), San Cristóbal (1) and Guandule (1). Of confirmed cases, three are babies. On 6 November, a three-month old girl died of the disease in San Cristóbal.

Food security and nutrition

9. Thousands of rice, plantain, tomato, onion and other small fruit and vegetable lots were destroyed, particularly in south, Cibao Central and northeastern regions, which remain flooded.

10. Basic agricultural foodstuffs experienced a 30% increase in price yesterday in markets.

11. The General Cattle Ranching Association (DIGEGA) reports that between 8,000 and 9,000 head of cattle disappeared or perished.

Shelters

12. The Dominican Red Cross is assisting more than 36,200 refugees in 226 shelters throughout the country.

PRIORITY NEEDS

13. Most recently identified needs:

Health, water and sanitation

- Potable water and mass and family water storage receptacles; chlorine water purification kits

- Disposable diapers for children and adults

- Portable latrines

- Different sized trash bags

- Mattresses and sheets for beds; mosquito nets

- Medicine and vaccines

- Cleaning equipment for shelters and affected housing

- Psychosocial support

- Water treatment plants

Food Security and Nutrition

Food for children under 3 and adults located in shelters.

NATIONAL RESPONSE

Organization

14. According to Bulletin #21 of the CNE, on 7 November, the number of cut-off communities again increased (155) along with the number of displaced people (79,728).

15. The President of the Dominican Republic visited on 6 November Arenosa and Villa Riva in Duarte province, where he announced the construction of homes affected by flooding. The Government also plans to rent homes to shelter affected populations until their homes are rebuilt. He also announced that on 8 November he would announce measures to rebuild the areas affected by Tropical Storm "Noel".

16. The National Council for Urban Matters (Conau) presents a proposal for housing to relocate people living along the Ozama and Isabela rivers. This proposal includes an extension of 12 million square meters in Las Américas, San Isidro, La Caleta, Mella highway and Duarte highway.

17. The Senate requested executive powers to create a specialized body to avoid people to build again and occupy those vulnerable zones.

18. A Public Health has assured that the shelters and affected communities are under sanitary control, despite some cases of diarrhea, colds, respiratory problems and conjunctivitis cases.

19. Some 840 prisoners transferred out of La Victoria prison have now returned.

20. The Secretary of the Budget warned that economic activity fell by 726 million pesos (approximately USD 21.6 million) in the first week of November due to "Noel".

21. With the "Short Cycle Planting" project, the government seeks to recover 25 essential crops in order to guarantee food production and supply.

22. Agriculture requests that the Army and Police protect crops and properties following a wave of robberies in the south.

Actions

23. Aerial, maritime and land operations for aid and assistance to affected populations continues.

24. Food, medicine, blankets, mattresses, mosquito nets and water distribution and assistance to the population continues.

25. Cafeterias have distributed more than 900,000 cooked meal rations and the Social Plan of the Presidency and the Armed Forces have distributed around 80,450 food rations to affected populations.

26. SESPAS maintains medical personnel, nurses and support personnel in shelters throughout the country, along with epidemiological surveillance through preventive vaccine campaigns, fumigations, and water cleaning and purification efforts. They have also deployed mental health professionals in shelters and distributed fortified food rations for babies.

27. Nationally mobilized funding:

28. Nationally mobilized materials:

Institution	Sector	Type of contributions in kind	No. of Beneficiaries
Gobierno de RD	Shelter	Reconstruction of housing
Gobierno de RD	Logistics	Fuel
Gobierno de RD	Agriculture	Re-planting	1,521,000 hectares
Gobierno de RD	Food Aid	Food Aid	106,040 rations

• 5 intense hurricanes (Category 3 to 5), average: 2)

I intend to keep track of the named storms and hurricanes.  We are only about 1/2 mile from the ocean but there is a considerable hill between us and the ocean which would protect us hopefully from something like a tsunami but that is due to an earthquake, not a hurricane.  Anyway, before the season is
over, we may have a story to tell.

1.  Hurricane Dean Stirs in Atlantic, May Hit Caribbean Aug. 16  -- Dean became the Atlantic season's first hurricane today as it gathered strength while heading for the Caribbean's Lesser Antilles.

2.  Hurricane Felix is plowing towards Nicaragua and other nations in the area.  It is expected to hit as a category 5